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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.