Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
